300 Wins Requires 120 Before 30 - Baseball Theory
This is a golden age for old pitchers. We have two active pitchers, Roger Clemens (349) and Greg Maddux (339) having over 300 wins. There are two near-certain to pass the 300 milestone, Tom Glavine is within 4 and Randy Johnson is within 16 wins. After that the list of active pitchers drops off the table like a nasty knuckleball.
We have 38-year-old Mike Mussina with 242 wins. He might have five 12-win years left in him. Behind Moose are a bunch of forty- and thirty-somethings who have no chance either due to age or recent injury which would suggest that they won’t pitch long enough. Basically, even 120 wins by the age of 30 would require ten more 18-win seasons in your waning career, and that ain’t likely. I see only C.C. Sabathia, Carlos Zambrano and Dontrelle Willis having a chance.
If these three youngsters can go back in time to pitch for Atlanta during the 1990’s, they might have a shot.
I’ve highlighted below, in red boldface, the pitchers I think have a shot. Stats from the indispensable baseball-reference.com:
Comment if you disagree.
| Player (age) | Wins | Wins @ 30 | Comment |
| Cy Young+ | 511 | ||
| Walter Johnson+ | 417 | ||
| Pete Alexander+ | 373 | ||
| Christy Mathewson+ | 373 | ||
| Pud Galvin+ | 364 | ||
| Warren Spahn+* | 363 | ||
| Kid Nichols+ | 361 | ||
| Roger Clemens (44) | 349 | 163 | |
| Tim Keefe+ | 342 | ||
| Greg Maddux (41) | 339 | 195 | |
| Steve Carlton+* | 329 | ||
| John Clarkson+ | 328 | ||
| Eddie Plank+* | 326 | ||
| Nolan Ryan+ | 324 | 151 | |
| Don Sutton+ | 324 | ||
| Phil Niekro+ | 318 | ||
| Gaylord Perry+ | 314 | ||
| Tom Seaver+ | 311 | ||
| Charley Radbourn+ | 309 | ||
| Mickey Welch+ | 307 | ||
| Lefty Grove+* | 300 | ||
| Early Wynn+ | 300 | ||
| Bobby Mathews | 297 | ||
| Tom Glavine* (41) | 296 | 139 | likely in 2007 |
| Tommy John* | 288 | ||
| Bert Blyleven | 287 | ||
| Robin Roberts+ | 286 | ||
| Fergie Jenkins+ | 284 | ||
| Randy Johnson* (43) | 284 | 88 | likely in 2008 |
| Mike Mussina (38) | 242 | 136 | Does Moose have five 12-win years in him? |
| David Wells* (44) | 233 | 58 | |
| Jamie Moyer* (44) | 223 | 46 | |
| Curt Schilling (40) | 213 | 69 | |
| Kenny Rogers* (42) | 208 | 70 | |
| Pedro Martinez (35) | 206 | 152 | |
| John Smoltz (40) | 201 | 129 | |
| Andy Pettitte* (35) | 190 | even six 18-win years will leave him 2 short | |
| Al Leiter* (41) | 162 | ||
| Tim Wakefield (40) | 158 | ||
| Brad Radke (34) | 148 | a year younger but 42 wins behind Pettitte | |
| Bartolo Colon (34) | 146 | a year younger but 42 wins behind Pettitte | |
| Aaron Sele (37) | 146 | ||
| Scott Erickson (39) | 142 | ||
| Steve Trachsel (36) | 139 | ||
| Mike Hampton* (34) | 138 | ||
| Tom Gordon (39) | 131 | ||
| Kirk Rueter* (36) | 130 | ||
| Pedro Astacio (37) | 129 | ||
| Jon Lieber (37) | 129 | ||
| Livan Hernandez (32) | 128 | ||
| Jason Schmidt (34) | 128 | ||
| Kevin Millwood (32) | 127 | ||
| Woody Williams (40) | 127 | ||
| Tim Hudson (31) | 126 | ||
| Terry Mulholland* (44) | 124 | ||
| Esteban Loaiza (35) | 123 | ||
| Hideo Nomo (38) | 123 | ||
| Jeff Fassero* (44) | 121 | ||
| Matt Morris (32) | 118 | ||
| Freddy Garcia (32) | 117 | ||
| Jeff Suppan (32) | 114 | ||
| Chan Ho Park (34) | 113 | ||
| Russ Ortiz (33) | 110 | ||
| Derek Lowe (34) | 108 | ||
| Barry Zito* (29) | 108 | ten 18-win years will still leave him 12 short | |
| Roy Oswalt (29) | 105 | ||
| Roy Halladay (30) | 104 | ||
| Ismael Valdez (33) | 104 | ||
| Mark Mulder* (29) | 103 | ||
| Javier Vazquez (30) | 103 | ||
| Wilson Alvarez* (37) | 102 | ||
| Mark Buehrle* (28) | 101 | ||
| Chris Carpenter (32) | 100 | ||
| Shawn Estes* (34) | 99 | ||
| Rick Helling (36) | 93 | ||
| Kelvim Escobar (31) | 92 | ||
| C.C. Sabathia* (26) | 92 | best bet if he can stay healthy | |
| Darren Oliver* (36) | 91 | ||
| Brett Tomko (34) | 90 | ||
| Jose Lima (34) | 89 | ||
| Jarrod Washburn* (32) | 89 | ||
| Paul Byrd (36) | 88 | ||
| Jeff Weaver (30) | 88 | ||
| Matt Clement (32) | 87 | ||
| Jon Garland (27) | 87 | ||
| Eric Milton* (31) | 87 | ||
| Cal Eldred (39) | 86 | ||
| Johan Santana* (28) | 86 | won’t have enough wins by the age of 30 | |
| Orlando Hernandez (41) | 84 | ||
| Brian Anderson* (35) | 82 | ||
| Frank Castillo (38) | 82 | ||
| Cory Lidle (35) | 82 | ||
| Ramon Ortiz (34) | 82 | ||
| Brad Penny (29) | 82 | ||
| Sidney Ponson (30) | 82 | ||
| Julian Tavarez (34) | 82 | ||
| James Baldwin (35) | 79 | ||
| Jose Mesa (41) | 79 | ||
| Randy Wolf* (30) | 77 | ||
| Miguel Batista (36) | 75 | ||
| Arthur Rhodes* (37) | 75 | ||
| Dustin Hermanson (34) | 73 | ||
| Kent Mercker* (39) | 73 | ||
| Carlos Zambrano (26) | 72 | talk to us if he can get 60 more wins over the next four years | |
| Rheal Cormier* (40) | 71 | ||
| Kerry Wood (30) | 71 | ||
| John Lackey (28) | 70 | ||
| Ben Sheets (28) | 70 | ||
| Mike Timlin (41) | 70 | ||
| Vicente Padilla (29) | 69 | ||
| Josh Beckett (27) | 68 | ||
| Kris Benson (32) | 68 | ||
| Paul Quantrill (38) | 68 | ||
| Mike Stanton* (40) | 68 | ||
| Jamey Wright (32) | 68 | ||
| Jaret Wright (31) | 68 | ||
| Doug Davis* (31) | 67 | ||
| Roberto Hernandez (42) | 67 | ||
| Chris Hammond* (41) | 66 | ||
| Jake Peavy (26) | 66 | ||
| Ted Lilly* (31) | 65 | ||
| Dontrelle Willis* (25) | 65 | talk to us if he can get 60 more wins over the next four years | |
| A.J. Burnett (30) | 64 | ||
| Rodrigo Lopez (31) | 64 | ||
| Mark Redman* (33) | 64 | ||
| Dave Weathers (37) | 64 | ||
| Jimmy Haynes (34) | 63 | ||
| Brian Moehler (35) | 63 | ||
| John Thomson (33) | 63 | ||
| Wade Miller (30) | 62 | ||
| Carl Pavano (31) | 62 | ||
| Odalis Perez* (30) | 62 |
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Jul 12th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
[...] Rob Neyer seems to be echoing the theme of my June 27 300 Wins Requires 120 Before 30 - Baseball Theory in his July 3 Somebody will win 300 again. Neyer picks Roy Oswalt and Johan Santana to reach 300 [...]